Spoiler alert: I did not see the northern lights because there were too many clouds at night. Given the chance to go out and try, postpone or cancel the tour, I opted for cancellation and got my money back. I heard from others that the nightly tours chasing the lights or a gap in the clouds to see them can be long and exhausting. Most of their pictures showed a slight glimmer on the horizon because the rest of the sky was overcast.
For me, that just wasn’t worth it as I needed a rest and lots of sleep. But to each his own, those who went can say they saw the northern lights. And those who went out on a tour and didn’t see them can come back for free within three years and try again. That’s not a bad deal either.